Part II: The proposed boundaries - South-Eastern Metropolitan

South-Eastern Metropolitan

  1. South-Eastern Metropolitan region encompasses the fast growing fringes of Melbourne, relatively declining suburbs along Dandenong Road, and more stable areas on Port Phillip Bay. Substantial changes are necessary to restore districts to approximate equality, allow for future population shifts and deal with the ‘ripple effect’ from neighbouring areas.
  2. Cranbourne district stretches east from the Frankston Freeway, only a kilometre from the coast, to Cranbourne itself. As part of the south-eastern growth belt, the district’s enrolment is 23.86 per cent above average, and is predicted to rise further to +28.59 per cent. The recommended boundaries in submissions varied considerably. The EBC’s proposed district was quite similar to Dr Mulcair’s, and to a lesser extent the ALP’s. The EBC proposed to reduce the district, removing everything west of Dandenong-Hastings Road (an area that includes about half of the current electors). To compensate, the district expanded to the north and south, taking Cranbourne North from Narre Warren South, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst from Lyndhurst district, and Botanic Ridge and nearby areas from Hastings district. The resultant district was focussed on Cranbourne and had very clear boundaries. The EBC made full use of the tolerances in the Act; the district’s current enrolment was 9.76 per cent below average, and it was projected to switch to 8.52 per cent above average.
  3. Narre Warren South district has Victoria’s third largest enrolment at 31.65 per cent above average, though its growth has levelled out and it is projected to increase only to 32.18 per cent in the forecast period. The district had to shed electors. Some submissions favoured abolishing the district. The EBC’s proposed boundaries were similar to those in Dr Mulcair’s submission. In the south, Cranbourne North was transferred to Cranbourne district. In the north-east, the boundary was retracted to the Princes Freeway, giving part of Berwick to Gembrook. In the north, parts of Narre Warren and Hallam were transferred to Narre Warren North, with the new boundary following the Hallam Main Drain, which is a clear divide on the ground. The proposed district gained the remainder of Hampton Park from Lyndhurst in the west, and part of Berwick south of the freeway from Bass in the east. The resultant district was centred on the suburb of Narre Warren South and had strong boundaries. Its enrolment was 5.98 per cent above average, and was predicted to decline to 2.68 per cent above average.
  4. In contrast to its southern ‘twin’, Narre Warren North's enrolment is slightly below average (-1.85 per cent), and is expected to decline to 4.74 per cent below average. There was a range of ideas in submissions for the district. The Liberal Party favoured moving the district to the east and centring it on Berwick, which fitted communities of interest, but the district was likely to be more than 15 per cent over the average by 2018. The ALP, on the other hand, proposed that the district should gain Endeavour Hills in the west. The Greens suggested that the district should be abolished, and effectively replaced by a Narre Warren district. The EBC proposed that the district should lose parts of Berwick and Harkaway in the east to Gembrook, part of Lysterfield South to Scoresby, and part of Endeavour Hills in the west to Dandenong. The district should expand south across the Monash Freeway and Princes Highway to the Hallam Main Drain (as well as taking a fragment of Endeavour Hills from Dandenong for the sake of a neater boundary). These boundaries united all of Narre Warren, Narre Warren North and Hallam in the district. The proposed district’s enrolment was very close to the average at +1.68 per cent, and is expected to remain fairly stable.
  5. Lyndhurst’s enrolment is 4.3 per cent above average, and it is not expected to change significantly. The problem with Lyndhurst district was not its enrolment numbers but the nature of the district itself. The district comprised a residential area in the north-west (Keysborough and parts of Noble Park, Springvale and Springvale South), a residential pocket in the south-east (Lyndhurst, Lynbrook and Hampton Park), and virtually empty green wedge and industrial land in between. The district was named after a small suburb at one end of the electorate, and had no real community of interest. The EBC proposed to abolish Lyndhurst district, divide most of its area among neighbouring districts, and create a new Keysborough district. As previously outlined, Cranbourne district would take in Lyndhurst and Lynbrook, and Narre Warren South would take in Hampton Park. Dandenong district would expand south to Bangholme Road to include the Dandenong South industrial area, and Carrum district would expand north to meet it. Mordialloc district would include the triangle of Bangholme between Pillars Road and the Patterson River. The remaining area did not contain enough electors for a district. The EBC proposed that the new district cross Springvale Road to take Dingley Village, Braeside and Waterways from Mordialloc, and also take the area between Chandler Road and Eastlink from Dandenong. The new district was centred on the suburb of Keysborough, and had readily identifiable boundaries. Its enrolment was on the average at -0.56 per cent, and was projected to decline to -4.95 per cent.
  6. Dandenong district is losing population, with its enrolment currently 14.81 per cent below average and projected to fall to -18.51 per cent. All submissions supported enlarging Dandenong to gain the necessary numbers, but the direction of the expansion varied. The EBC proposed that Dandenong take in Dandenong South to the south, part of Endeavour Hills to the east, and Tirhatuan Park and a fragment of Mulgrave in the north. The boundary with Mulgrave in the north-west was the most challenging, as Mulgrave district’s enrolment is also relatively declining and it was difficult to locate a suitable boundary. The EBC opted for a boundary that follows Eastlink for part of the way. Dandenong North east of Eastlink was included in the district, plus part of Noble Park North that had links with central Dandenong along Dandenong Road. The district lost part of Keysborough in the south-west, and a fragment of Endeavour Hills in the east. The proposed district’s enrolment was 1.85 per cent below average, and it was forecast to decline to -5.38 per cent.
  7. Enrolment 16.18 per cent below the average makes Mulgrave the third smallest district in the State. Its enrolment is projected to decline further to 21.2 per cent below average. As Mulgrave is hemmed in by other shrinking districts, it was a challenge to enlarge the district. Submissions put forward substantial changes, with Dr Mulcair and Mr Gordon recommending abolition of the district. The EBC favoured a minimal change approach. The south-eastern fringe, including parts of Noble Park North, Dandenong North and a fraction of the suburb of Mulgrave east of Eastlink, were transferred to Dandenong. As well, the mainly industrial part of Mulgrave west of Springvale Road was taken by Oakleigh. In return, Mulgrave took a large part of Wheelers Hill from Scoresby, so that the whole suburb was in Mulgrave district. The proposed district had very clear boundaries along major roads, railways and Dandenong Creek. Its enrolment was 3.19 per cent below average, and it was projected to decline to 9.86 per cent below.
  8. Mount Waverley is another small district, where enrolment is 11.38 per cent below average and projected to fall to -15.26 per cent. Several submissions, including that by the Greens, proposed to rename the seat Glen Waverley22 and move it to the east and south. The Liberals and ALP preferred more modest changes, with the ALP suggesting that the district take in part of Glen Waverley. The EBC considered that major change was not required for the district, and proposed that it absorb the block of Glen Waverley bordered by Gallaghers Road, Waverley Road, Dandenong Creek and High Street Road. As the district did not include all of the suburb of Glen Waverley, the EBC did not think it appropriate to rename the district. The proposed district had clear boundaries along major roads. Its enrolment was 2.78 per cent below average, and was projected to dip to -6.72 per cent by 2018.
  9. Clayton is the second smallest district in the State, its enrolment currently 18.31 per cent under the State average and projected to decline to -22.75 per cent. The Greens proposed that the district be abolished and divided between Mulgrave and Oakleigh, and other submissions recommended substantial changes. The EBC proposed that the district lose the area north of North Road and Dandenong Road, including Monash University’s Clayton campus, to Oakleigh district. In compensation, the district took from Bentleigh district part of Bentleigh East between Warrigal Road and Mackie Road, and, more importantly, expanded south into Mordialloc district to include parts of Cheltenham, Heatherton, Dingley Village and Springvale South. The proposed district had mostly clear boundaries on major roads, and its enrolment was well within the 10 per cent tolerance, starting at +3.81 per cent and falling to -6.28 per cent. The green wedge around Heatherton created something of a gap between Cheltenham and the rest of the district, though Warrigal Road was an important transport link. As a large part of the suburb of Clayton was no longer in the electorate, the EBC proposed that it be renamed Clarinda after the suburb in the centre of the district.
  10. Mordialloc’s enrolment is close to the average at +1.91 per cent, and is predicted to decline to -3.11 per cent. Most submissions made only minor amendments to the current boundaries, though the ALP and Greens proposed to abolish the seat. For the EBC, the loss of territory in the north to the new district of Clarinda and in the east to the new district of Keysborough necessitated major changes. The EBC proposed that the district expand to the south, taking Aspendale, Aspendale Gardens, Edithvale, Chelsea and Chelsea Heights from Carrum, and part of Bangholme from Lyndhurst. The proposed district was still based on Mordialloc, and retained a strong coastal character. Its enrolment was 3.05 per cent above average, and was projected to fall to 2.24 per cent under the average.
  11. Enrolment for Carrum district is +3.41 per cent, and is predicted to shift towards the average. The Liberal Party’s submission left Carrum unchanged, and most other submissions suggested few changes, but the Greens favoured abolishing the district and replacing it with new Chelsea and Seaford districts. For the EBC, Carrum was squeezed between Mordialloc district taking areas in the north, and Frankston district to the south. The EBC’s solution was for Carrum to expand to the east, taking in Carrum Downs, Skye and Sandhurst from Cranbourne and the relatively empty area between Thompsons Road and Bangholme Road from Lyndhurst. This area had connections with the coast along Frankston-Dandenong Road and Seaford Road. The district was still based on Carrum, and retained a largely coastal character. The proposed district’s enrolment was practically on average at +0.77 per cent, and was projected to decline marginally to -2.98 per cent.
  12. Frankston’s enrolment is 12.03 per cent below the average, and is tending downwards to -16.55 per cent. Submissions put forward a variety of proposals, with the ALP favouring the creation of a new Frankston East district23, and other submissions suggesting taking areas to the east. The Liberal Party and Mr McSweeney preferred a modest expansion to the north. The EBC believed that this was all that was needed for Frankston. The proposed district took Frankston North from Cranbourne and a triangle of Seaford east of the Frankston Freeway from Carrum. These areas have strong associations with Frankston. The proposed district’s enrolment was 1.84 per cent below average and was projected to decline to -6.66 per cent.





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22

Glen Waverley district existed from 1985 to 2002.

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23

Frankston East district existed from 1992 to 2002.

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